Phillies the early World Series favorite

Baseball Betting Lines

02/16/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With pitchers and catchers all set to head out to Florida and Arizona, it is apparent Major League Baseball is ready to fill some of the void in the sports world left by the end of the National Football League season.

To that end, it is time to talk about the 2012 campaign and which teams are the so-called "best bets" to win the National and American League pennants as well as the World Series.

Whatever betting site you visit, the Philadelphia Phillies are the early favorites to win this season's Fall Classic. That is somewhat surprising on one level as manager Charlie Manuel's squad has gone in reverse since winning the 2008 World Series. Don't forget, the Phillies lost to the New York Yankees in the 2009 Series, were eliminated by the San Franciso Giants in the NL Championship Series the following year, and then failed to even make the NLCS in 2011, losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in the final game of the Division Series.

On the other hand, Philadelphia does not have to defeat the kinds of teams the top AL clubs have to face in order to reach to the World Series. And since getting there is half the battle, the Phillies' odds are lower than all of the AL teams that might have more overall talent.

The difference between Philadelphia and the second- and third-ranked NL squads (Miami and San Francisco) in terms of odds to even reach the Fall Classic is around to 5-1. Over in the American League, the Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers are not only all lumped together, but also all interchangeable depending on the sportsbook. Furthermore, all five teams are between 3-1 to 5-1 odds to even win the AL pennant.

With the departure of NL stars such as Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder to the AL, the balance of power has shifted to the Junior Circuit. Some might say the AL was already the dominant league over the past few seasons, but key statistics prove otherwise, especially when it comes to the World Series hardware. The Cardinals come into 2012 as the reigning World Series champions after disposing the Rangers in an exciting seven- game series last October and the Giants proved best in 2011 with a five-game win over Texas.

The Senior Circuit has taken home the World Series in three of the last four seasons and four of the last six. Moreover, the NL has won the last two All- Star games after failing to come home a winner between 1996 and 2009.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Philadelphia is the NL favorite because the team returns three of its four aces from a year ago: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. However, despite last year's 102 regular-season victories, the bottom fell out in the postseason when the offense fell apart.

The Phillies batted .226 as a team against St. Louis, but that number does not tell the whole story. Take away the 11-6 victory in Game 1 and the batting average drops down to a pathetic .181.

General manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. upgraded the team's bench over the winter, but last year's problems came more from the starting lineup than the reserves. This season might not be as strong with slugged Ryan Howard out for an indefinite period of time, and the rest of the offense is loaded with aging veterans, such as Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco.

It is true that good pitching beats good hitting, but the Phillies were not even the team with the best pitching the last two years. Philadelphia is not as much of a lock to win the NL East as it was the last few years. Still, a 10-game drop-off from 2011 should be good enough to keep the Phillies in the postseason. However, taking 2-1 to win the pennant and 6-1 to win the World Series are sucker bets.

Two teams to keep in mind as possible NL pennant and World Series plays are Atlanta (10-1, 25-1) and Cincinnati (12-1, 25-1).

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Texas has been the class of the AL with two straight World Series appearances. Nevertheless, improvements made by other AL clubs might place the Rangers on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs are concerned.

The Angels have a very good chance of dethroning Texas as AL West champions with the additions of Pujols and former Rangers' starting pitcher, C.J. Wilson.

Detroit brought in Fielder to protect Miguel Cabrera, so the Tigers have to be considered one of the favorites to win the AL pennant. Jim Leyland's squad has a much easier road than the favorites in the East or West since it is almost a forgone conclusion the Tigers will win the Central.

The Yankees and Red Sox will once again renew their rivalry in the East and you can never count out the Tampa Bay Rays, especially after last year's dramatic comeback to make the playoffs.

Detroit is the team to beat in the American League, so the 4-1 odds to win the pennant certainly look appealing. In addition, the Tigers are a great bet at 8-1 to win the World Series.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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