This Week in Auto Racing February 17 - 19

Autoracing Betting Lines

02/14/2012 - Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's time to go racing again. Speedweeks 2012 at Daytona kicks off this weekend, with the Budweiser Shootout scheduled for Saturday and then qualifying for the Daytona 500 slated for Sunday.

NASCAR

Sprint Cup Series

Budweiser Shootout - Daytona International Speedway - Daytona Beach, FL

The 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season will rev up on Saturday night with the 34th running of the Budweiser Shootout at Daytona International Speedway. This year's scheduled 75-lap, 187.5-mile preseason race will feature a field of 25 cars.

The format for this race is unchanged from last year, but there is a tweak in the eligibility requirements. Drivers finishing among the top-25 in the Sprint Cup point standings this past season as well as active drivers who are not in the top-25 but previously won the Budweiser Shootout, the Daytona 500 or the 400-mile July race at Daytona are eligible.

Trevor Bayne, the 2011 Daytona 500 winner, will not be among the 25 drivers competing in the Budweiser Shootout, since Wood Brothers Racing could not secure sponsorship for his No.21 team in this event. Bayne is entered to compete in the Daytona 500.

Geoffrey Bodine, Derrike Cope, Bill Elliott, Terry Labonte and Ken Schrader are also eligible for the Budweiser Shootout but not participating in the event.

The Budweiser Shootout will serve as a dress rehearsal for the Daytona 500 and Gatorade Duels (twin 150-mile qualifying races for the 500). NASCAR recently revised its rules for restrictor-plate racing in an effort to minimize and perhaps eliminate two-car tandems, which have become an unpopular style of racing at restrictor-plate tracks (Daytona and Talladega Superspeedway). NASCAR is hopeful the rule changes will return pack racing.

"When you pack race, in most instances, if not all, it's important to race the whole time," said Jimmie Johnson, who won the preseason race at Daytona in 2005. "You're going to have to race for the win from the first lap. Unlike what we have now, where you know you can make up so much time in a short period of laps, you'll be much more engaged throughout the race."

NASCAR has also banned communications between drivers on their car radios during a race at plate tracks in another attempt to break up the two-car breakaways.

Most Sprint Cup teams participated in a three-day test session at Daytona last month. During the test, NASCAR gathered data when as many as 20 cars ran in a draft. Further modifications to the restrictor plates and the size of the front grille opening on the cars could be forthcoming.

Teams competing in the Budweiser Shootout will also get a chance to familiarize themselves with the new electronic fuel injection systems during race conditions.

Several drivers will make their debuts with new teams in the Budweiser Shootout. They include: A.J. Allmendinger (Penske Racing), Clint Bowyer (Michael Waltrip Racing), Kurt Busch (Phoenix Racing), Kasey Kahne (Hendrick Motorsports) and David Ragan (Front Row Motorsports).

"It's definitely something to be excited about and look forward to, and I can't wait to get down there and practice a little bit, and then qualifying on Sunday is going to be exciting," Kahne said.

Busch, who drove the No.22 car for Penske last year, is the defending race winner.

Marcos Ambrose and Brad Keselowski are those drivers who are competing in this race for the first time.

The starting lineup for the Budweiser Shootout will be determined during a random drawing held Friday evening at Daytona.

Daytona 500 qualifying - Daytona International Speedway - Daytona Beach, FL

Qualifying for the Daytona 500 -- NASCAR's most prestigious race of the season -- is a unique format. Just the first two starting positions in the February 26 season-opening race will be determined on Sunday. The remainder of the 43- car field will be decided in the February 23 Gatorade Duels at Daytona.

The top-35 in Sprint Cup owner points are already guaranteed a starting position in the Daytona 500. Where they start is based on how they finish in twin 150-mile qualifying races. The top-two finishing, non top-35 teams in each of the two qualifiers will secure a starting position in the 500. The remaining starters -- as many as four drivers -- will be based upon speeds recorded in Sunday's time trials.

No driver has ever won all four major Speedweeks events at Daytona -- Budweiser Shootout, Daytona 500 pole, Gatorade Duel and Daytona 500. Cale Yarborough (1984), Ken Schrader (1989) and Dale Jarrett (2000) have won three of the four events.

Last year's Speedweeks winners were: Kurt Busch (Budweiser Shootout and Gatorade Duel race one), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Daytona 500 pole), Jeff Burton (Gatorade Duel race two) and Trevor Bayne (Daytona 500).

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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